Many in the airline industry eagerly bid good riddance to the year gone by, the aches and pains of 2008 still linger like an unshakeable cold. Looking after the concerns of its worldwide membership, IAPA is focused on several key areas of airline service. We'd like to offer our take on each of these for 2009.

Safety and Security

We should pay close attention to any changes in rules that govern allowable crew hours, aircraft maintenance and those who perform the overhaul and repair work on airplanes. Complete oversight is a must. Airlines, airports and governments are all responsible for the safe carriage of passengers and improvements in navigation technology, collision avoidance, and airport screening practices are all crucial to our safety. Governments need to invest in significant air traffic improvements to ease congestion and fuel waste. In 2009, IAPA will support these and other efforts to make the safest mode of transportation even safer.

Comfort and Health:

Studies of the effects of cabin air quality continue and we're closely monitoring any findings. The airline industry insists that, on average, the cabin air is replaced every seven to ten minutes. Requiring devices such as ozone filters on all flights may help improve cabin quality but it may cost consumers a bit more on each ticket since it's likely that airlines will pass along any additional expenses. Many factors influence the quality of cabin air, including the type of aircraft and the number of occupants. But if passengers can be overcome by de-icing fluid vapors that accidentally enter an aircraft's ventilation system (as had recently happened in Seattle), you can't argue that there will always be room for improvements.

Environment:

We're encouraged that airlines are testing bio fuels and other alternative sources to power today and tomorrow's aircrafts. We're a long way from a viable solution but we're slowly witnessing how necessity truly is the mother of invention. Perhaps the oil price shock of 2008 did yield some good. When it comes to carbon offsets and the EU decision to include aviation in the Emissions Trading Scheme, opinions are mixed. Airlines contribute a small amount of carbon emissions compared to other industries, but should this warrant an exemption? On the other hand, how else can industries be encouraged to reduce pollutants that contribute to climate change, regardless of the amounts they produce?

Service:

In 2009, we'll also be watching to see what airlines do about their in-flight product. Will the seats get narrower; will in-flight cell phone use become the norm; will there ever be a clear winner in the battle for the middle arm rests? While checked baggage fees have reduced the number misplaced bags, if it's yours, it's one too many. Are airlines willing to refund your checked bag fee if it doesn't arrive on time? What about carry-on bags? Most travelers fear that their on-board goodies will be the next target for airline fees. What about award tickets? Redeeming frequent flyer miles has become a chore, and the added costs associated with "free" tickets has angered some very loyal airline customers.

Flight delays will be closely watched in 2009 as well. Last year, IAPA participated in a U.S. government task force that produced a list of recommendations for airlines, airport operators, vendors, government agencies and other stakeholders to use to mitigate passenger inconvenience during lengthy ground delays. There is still work to be done in this regard and IAPA will support all efforts to ensure that these recommendations are reviewed by the incoming U.S. administration so that progress can continue.

Economic:

The proverbial elephant in the room (or 800-pound gorilla if you prefer), is the state of the global economy and it's impact on commercial aviation. As airlines tighten their fiscal seatbelts and passengers put off flying until financial conditions improve, there will be more struggles ahead. Look for more consolidation – mergers, alliances and strange bedfellows joining forces – even among traditionally independent low-cost carriers. Prices will probably remain higher than in previous years, but airlines are wary of scaring off too many customers if fares increase too sharply. The fee frenzy looks to have waned a little but don't be surprised if some unexpected ones emerge that we simply haven't thought of. Despite grumblings from passengers, the airlines have held on to these fees and many are actually making money from them.

The dramatic drop in fuel prices has also given airlines more financial breathing room. In fact, some analysts predict profits in 2009 for some of the healthier carriers. Given the sensitivity of the industry to so many economic factors, it won't take much of a crisis to plunge the industry into another chaotic spiral. Despite the airlines' upgraded outlook, IATA predicts global airline losses of over US$2.5 billion in 2009. You won't see bold moves for a while except for occasional mergers, alliances and acquisitions by stronger carriers seeking to inoculate themselves from weak demand in one region by ensuring they're making money in another. Of course, many of these proposed deals require regulatory approval so get ready for some interesting political manoeuvres by airlines and their competitors.

2009 Outlook:

So what can you expect in 2009? It will certainly be harder and costlier to redeem miles for award travel so be patient, flexible and creative with your dates. You might have to think opposite to everyone else when it comes to planning your holidays. If business class travel stays soft, look for airlines to offer an occasional bargain for business class tickets, especially on off-peak flights. Fees are here to stay but fuel surcharges will likely adjust downward (some airlines have done away with them), though they still will remain higher than in 2007. While average ticket prices went up in 2008, don't expect steep hikes unless operating costs skyrocket as they did when fuel prices spiked. If demand stays weak, fares will have to come down. Airlines don't like empty seats so you may still find a bargain, especially if you follow the off-peak, flexible, creative formula for snaring award seats. Nobody really knows what surprises await the industry in 2009 but if it looks anything like 2008, keep those seatbelts tightly fastened about you.